Is Sierra Nevada Overvalued? The Curious Case of the “Boring” Beer

Last week, we took a quick peek at some of the fallers and risers from the recently released “Best Beers in America” poll by homebrewing magazine Zymurgy.

For a sixth-straight year, Pliny the Elder topped the list, despite its relative distribution scarcity and what some described as an IPA that isn’t as good as the hype suggests. Even still, some of the biggest movers up the list from 2012 to 2014 were other specialty or rare beers like Founders Kentucky Bourbon Stout, Alchemist Heady Topper and Goose Island’s Bourbon County Brand Stout.

There’s a natural tendency for lists like this to function with a level of bias, but what I’ve become most interested in from looking over the “Best Beers” is also how it highlights our changing expectations and what we want from the beer industry.

First off, here’s a link to the entirety of this year’s list and you can see a full rundown of the past three years worth of “Best Beers” here.

As I compiled these lists, the most striking aspect was the shift in brand interest from 2012 through this year’s version. For example, here are 11 beers and their rankings the 2012 list:

20. New Belgium Fat Tire
T25. New Belgium Ranger
T25. Stone Sublimely Self-Righteous Ale
T31. Rogue Dead Guy
T31. Sam Adams Boston Lager
T37. Dogfish Head Palo Santo Marron
41. Deschutes Mirror Pond Pale Ale
42. Victory Prima Pils
43. Great Devide Yeti
T44. Anchor Steam
T44. Sam Adams Noble Pils

Seeing these beers in a “Best Beers in America” list from 2012 makes us seem kind of quaint, doesn’t it? While they are great beers, the unfortunate truth is they have no place on such a list these days, given the vast options at our disposal and a preference to put rare or “mythical” beers at the top of rankings. Ranger is the only surviving member of the bunch to make it on 2014’s list at 46.

As mentioned in my previous post, Dogfish Head’s fall is noticeable, perhaps because people are simply getting “bored” with their beer. 60 and 90 Minute IPAs make up 68 percent of all of Dogfish’s sales, but that hasn’t stopped voters from losing interest, according to Zymurgy’s polls:

	60 Minute	90 Minute	120 Minute
2012	15	3	25
2013	30	3	N/A
2014	T34	7	27

An Experiment

To shake things up a bit, I wanted to take another look at the structure of this year’s “Best Beers” list through the prism of analytics from BeerGraphs. That site uses a formula called “Beers Above Replacement” that provides numerical value to the perceived quality of beers based on the zero to five star voting habits of drinkers on Untappd.

By doing this, I wanted to better determine if people undervalue the quality of beers they can find all the time.

The numbers on the left represent the new rankings, rearranged according to descending Beers Above Replacement (BAR) value. The number that sits next to the name of the beer is its original Zymurgy ranking, as voted on by the public for the magazine. On the right, numbers above 10 are considered a “Hall of Fame” beer, 8 to 10 is an “MVP” and ratings go down from there:

New BAR Rank	Beers, w/ Zymurgy ranking attached	BAR value
1	5. The Alchemist Heady Topper	18.95
2	14. Three Floyds Zombie Dust	17.03
3	1. Russian River Pliny the Elder	16.51
4	28. Russian River Pliny the Younger	14.51
5	11. Founders Kentucky Breakfast County Brand Stout	12.39
6	45. Surly Abrasive IPA	12.38
7	10. Goose Island Bourbon County Brand Stout	12.24
8	4. Bell’s Hopslam	12.19
9	T39. Troegs Nugget Nectar	11.37
10	3. Ballast Point Sculpin IPA	11.17
11	2. Bell’s Two Hearted Ale	10.48
12	T49. Founders Backwoods Bastard	9.89
13	32. Surly Furious	9.8
14	27. Dogfish Head 120 Minute IPA	9.85
15	22. Russian River Blind Pig IPA	9.75
16	9. Foudners Breakfast Stout	9.35
17	T15. Lagunitas Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’	9.25
18	42. Cigar City Jai Alai IPA	9.24
19	30. Russian River Supplication	8.75
20	T39. Russian River Consecration	8.49
21	17. Firestone Walker Double Jack	8.27
22	7. Dogfish head 90 Minute IPA	8.26
23	6. Lagunitas Sucks	7.63
24	13. Firestone Walker Wookey Jack	7.44
25	8. Stone Enjoy By IPA	7.24
26	T34. Dogfish Head 60 Minute IPA	7.2
27	41. Deschutes The Abyss	7.06
28	43. Bear Republic Racer 5	6.96
29	37. Stone IPA	6.89
T30	26. Stone Ruination IPA	6.73
T30	29. Left Hand Milk Stout Nitro	6.73
31	T49. Odell IPA	6.6
32	33. New Belgium La Folie	6.54
33	36. Oskar Blues Dale’s Pale Ale	6.46
34	T18. Firestone Walker Union Jack	6.39
35	25. Boulevard Tank 7 Farmhouse Ale	6.34
36	31. Green Flash West Coast IPA	6.31
37	38. Lagunitas IPA	5.74
38	12. Sierra Nevada Pale Ale	5.47
39	20. Sierra Nevada Torpedo	5.24
40	44. Oskar Blues Ten Fidy	5.05
41	T34. Founders All Day IPA	4.78
42	T47. Great Lakes Edmund Fitzgerald Porter	4.73
43	T15. Sierra Nevada Celebration	4.73
44	T23. North Coast Old Rasputin	4.64
45	T23. Deschutes Black Butte Porter	4.62
46	T18. Stone Arrogant Bastard Ale	4.26
47	21. Sierra Nevada Ruthless Rye	3.74
48	T47. Ommegang Three Philosophers	3.67
49	46. New Belgium Ranger	2.37

 

Keep in mind there is inherent bias in Untappd rankings, which in turn impact Beers Above Replacement. However, looking at that list shows how voters undervalue some of the best beers in the country. Three Floyds’ Zombie Dust was ranked 14 in Zymurgy’s poll, but has an actual value from Beers Above Replacement that makes it the second-best beer on the list. Surly’s Abrasive IPA, 45 in Zymurgy, was sixth overall in the new order.

Here are some other beers that had strong discrepancies between Zymurgy ranking and Beers Above Replacement (BAR) ranking:

	Troegs Nugget Nectar	Founders Backwoods Bastard	Cigar City Jai Alai
Zymurgy Rank	39	49	42
BAR Rank	9	12	18
	Dogfish 60 Minute	Bear Republic Racer 5	Stone IPA
Zymurgy Rank	T34	T34	37
BAR Rank	26	26	24

 

An Interesting Find

Looking at the change in ranking numbers for all these beers helps shine a light on potential bias for Zymurgy’s voters, but raises a question: why do people seem to like Sierra Nevada beers so much?

Two of the best selling craft beers in the country, Sierra Nevada’s Pale Ale (12) and Torpedo (20), rank in the top half of Zymurgy’s list, but fall to the tail-end (Pale Ale – 38, Torpedo – 39) when ranked by Beers Above Replacement.

Sierra Nevada’s Celebration, a fresh-hopped IPA seasonal release, was ranked 15 by Zymurgy voters, but falls to 43 in the new rankings. Ruthless Rye, originally 21, fell to 47.

I think Sierra Nevada makes great beers and I enjoy all these brews, but this instance highlights an important aspect of perceived value: marketing. Whereas hype may boost Pliny the Elder to the top of annual Zymurgy rankings, Sierra Nevada benefits from being a nationally-distributed brand.

Which brings us back to the issue of “boring” beers. Sierra Nevada is available everywhere, but in the grand scheme of “best beer” rankings, their beer might not be classified as “special” enough. Their Pale Ale and Torpedo IPA have a place among the best brews craft can offer, but in light of how quickly other nationally-marketed beers fall off the Zymurgy rankings (see top of post), why are Sierra Nevada brews still there, let alone ranked so highly?

Granted, there is a downward trend in the last three Zymurgy “Best Beers” list:

	Pale Ale	Torpedo	Celebration	Ruthless Rye
2012:	4	9	7	12
2013:	15	T12	T9	8
2014:	12	20	T15	21

 

Each is slowly losing ground, following the trend of the other “boring” beers, but they’re not fading fast. That makes me think there is some kind of bias involved in their Zymurgy ranking, perhaps aided by their mass distribution and overall appeal, even if they may not actually be “best” for their respective styles. There’s a certain level of “legacy” appreciation beer drinkers may have toward Sierra Nevada, too.

But then again, this is just a beer ranking list and not rocket science. Everyone’s taste buds will lead them in their own direction.

Related:

• What Do the “Best Beers in America” Say About the Beer Industry?
• Zymurgy’s “Best Beers” Ranking and the Search for a Non-Boring Beer

+Bryan Roth
“Don’t drink to get drunk. Drink to enjoy life.” — Jack Kerouac